Futures large cylindrical batteries will continue to be difficult to produce in 2024
On January 31st, 2024, JAC Ruifeng RF8 was officially launched, becoming the third vehicle equipped with a large cylindrical battery. The other two are: JAC Yttrium 3, which was listed on June 16, 2023, and Tesla Cybertruck, which recently toured China.In the eyes of peers, 电芯 It has good qualities that people covet, and it also has many loyal fans that people envy. https://www.canrud.com/products/detail/6a65d3b2d5084d24b10540fe9edae280
Of course, the official name of Cybertruck in China is Cybercross Country Wagon.
Source/New Energy Prospective Shooting
On January 28, 2023, the much-watched Tesla Cybercross-country wagon officially opened its domestic tour. The eight cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Xi ‘an, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu and Nanjing.
Musk has previously said that the 4680 battery will be an important part of Tesla’s 2023 plan. All future electric vehicles of Tesla, including Model Y, Semi semi-trailer truck, Cyber electric truck and Roadster 2 electric sports car, will use 4680 large cylindrical batteries.
According to Musk’s vision, the large cylindrical battery can increase the cruising range of Tesla electric vehicles by 16% and reduce the production cost by 50%, which is even considered as “the light of lithium battery”.
But in fact, after Musk launched 4,680 large cylindrical batteries in 2020, it was not until mid-2023 that large cylindrical batteries began to be mass-produced on a small scale. According to public information, in June 2023, Tesla produced the 10 millionth battery cell, and by October 2023, the 20 millionth 4680 battery cell was born. This means that the annual output of large cylindrical battery cells is 30 million, which is equivalent to the battery consumption of 24,000 Cybertruck.
Obviously, such battery production is out of proportion to the order volume of Cybertruck with more than 2 million units.
On the other hand, Tesla previously claimed that the negative electrode of the 4680 battery would be made of silicon carbide to improve the energy density. However, after disassembling the battery, a technical organization found that its negative electrode did not contain silicon carbide, but graphite. Some media said that the energy density of 4680 large cylindrical battery is not as good as that of 2170 small cylindrical battery.
In this way, the large cylindrical battery is still far from the “light of lithium battery”.
01
What exactly is a large cylindrical battery?
At present, the power batteries of new energy vehicles can be divided into three types according to their shapes: square, soft bag and cylinder. Square is the mainstream form, accounting for about 60% of the market share.
Cylindrical batteries can be divided into two types: small cylindrical batteries and large cylindrical batteries. The former is a “2170 cylindrical battery” with a diameter of 21 mm and a height of 70 mm, which is a mature product. The large cylindrical battery is a battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm, which is also often called “4680 cylindrical battery”.
In Tesla’s view, a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46mm is the best size for battery life improvement and cost reduction. As the diameter becomes smaller, the number of battery sections required by the whole vehicle will increase, and the management of BMS (Battery Management System) will become more difficult. However, as the diameter increases, the number of battery sections decreases, but the heat dissipation of the battery core becomes a difficulty.
There is no “critical point” in height, so there are 4680, 4695 and even 46120 batteries.
In terms of endurance, the upper limit of energy density of large cylindrical battery is higher, and it has higher safety. Take Jianghuai Ruifeng RF8 as an example, its lithium iron phosphate battery has an energy density of 180Wh/kg, while the general Ferrous lithium phosphate density is 100-150Wh/kg. Under the premise of the same weight, the large cylindrical battery can provide a longer cruising range and higher performance for electric vehicles.
Source/Jianghuai Automobile Official Website New Energy Prospective Screenshot
An important reason for Musk to launch a large cylindrical battery is its low cost.
For Musk, carrying a larger 4680 battery can reduce the number of battery cells and welding accessories, thus simplifying the battery pack structure and reducing the use of materials. In addition, the cathode material of Tesla 4680 battery is made of Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA), which is relatively cheap and can provide higher energy density.
”The rise of large cylindrical batteries is related to the market strategy of car companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency.” Some people in the industry have a forward-looking analysis of new energy sources. Because of the characteristics of reduced structure of the whole package, large cylindrical batteries have certain advantages in overall cost, as well as high energy density and good power performance.
02
Battery manufacturers compete for layout
Therefore, many battery manufacturers have chosen to follow the pace of Tesla.
In September 2020, Tesla CEO elon musk announced that Tesla would produce 4680 batteries. “For the 4680 battery, we still have a lot of work to do. Although it looks like a battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm, it itself contains amazing new technologies. ” Musk said.
Subsequently, Panasonic, LG, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Yuanjing Power, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, BIC Battery and other enterprises successively announced that large cylindrical batteries would be included in the company’s technological development path.
In September 2023, Yiwei Lithium Energy said on the investor interaction platform that the company’s first large cylindrical production line was completed by the end of 2022. In the first half of 2023, the millionth battery was rolled off the assembly line.
Source/Yiwei Lithium Energy official website New energy forward-looking screenshot
In May 2023, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yiwei Lithium Energy signed a land purchase agreement with a Hungarian land seller to purchase its land in the northwest industrial zone of Debrecen for the production of cylindrical power batteries; In June of the same year, the 46 series large cylindrical light battery pack was first released; Yiwei Lithium Energy even said that the 46 series power energy storage batteries have achieved the intentional demand of customers in the next five years, totaling about 392GWh; The production capacity of large cylindrical batteries has been planned to exceed 100GWh, and mass production is expected to be realized in 2023-2024.
Panasonic’s chief technology officer in charge of electric vehicle batteries recently said that Tesla may provide cheaper electric vehicles to the market in the near future because Panasonic will launch the improved new generation of 2170 batteries and 4680 batteries as early as 2024.
According to the incomplete statistics of new energy prospect, domestic enterprises, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, Yuanjing Power, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Bike Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines, Honeycomb Energy, Chuangming New Energy, Azure Lithium Battery, etc., all have layouts in the field of 4680 batteries or other 46 series cylindrical batteries.
Among them, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Vision Power and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited are all suppliers of large cylindrical batteries for BMW cars. According to the planning of BMW Group, large cylindrical batteries with a standard diameter of 46mm will be used in the “new generation” models from 2025.
03
Mass production faces many challenges.
Undoubtedly, not only Tesla and Musk, but also the power battery industry is optimistic about the prospect of large cylindrical batteries.
Huatai Securities predicts that the global installed capacity of large cylindrical batteries will reach 429GWh in 2027, and the corresponding market size will be 214.48 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 110.7% from 2023 to 2027. Northeast Securities Research Report pointed out that in 2025, the installed capacity of 46 series large cylindrical batteries in the world is expected to reach 255GWh, and the global market penetration rate can be increased to 20%.
